EOSDIS Data Sampler #3 - ENSO 2002-03

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Introduction -- Indications -- Problems -- Outcome -- Local and Web Links

Forecasts for the El Niño of 2002-03

Introduction

An ENSO warm event (El Niño) has been predicted/forecast for 2002-03. Many looked forward to a large enough El Niño that might provide some relief for the drought-plagued West, Southwest and Southeast United States, as well as other parts of the world. However, not all predictions agreed. It was not until September, much later than usual, that NOAA announced officially that an El Niño was taking place.

Temperature profiles of eastern and western equatorial Pacific show that the equatorial Pacific is cooler than normal after mid 1998, but is starting to warm up.

Indications

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After the ENSO-neutral winter 2001-02, many reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere forecast models showed a transition to warm conditions between about May and September 2002. Early signs include:

Warmer-than-normal sea surface and subsurface temperatures developed throughout the equatorial Pacific.

Enhanced rainfall has been observed over the tropical west-central Pacific, from Papua, New Guinea eastward to the date line (180W).

Enhanced rainfall also developed in late February over the warmer-than-normal waters between the west coast of South America and the Galapagos Islands.

Coastal fog interacting with strong southerly winds of Peru

Prolonged drought in the southern provinces of Vietnam, resulting in large wildfires raging out of control. Many other wildfires are being recorded in areas impacted by El Niño drought effects.

Early typhoon season in the western Pacific, due to unusually warm waters.

Rapid changes (over 30-60 day time scales) in the difference of precipitation between 2 specific geographic areas in the Indian Ocean, in late January and early February.

Drought enhanced wildfires in California, Arizona, and Colorado, at the same time that heavy rains and floods occur in Minnesota and Florida.

Problems

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However, the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Pediction Project (NSIPP) model predicts that "... strong prevailing trade winds ..., coupled with the strong upwelling of deep, very cold waters off the northwestern coast of South America, will effectively prevent the onset of El Niño." Also, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which may discourage El Niño development, continues to dominate the Pacific Ocean. Data from TOPEX/Poseidon show that there has not been any fundamental change in the ocean's large-scale patterns for the past 3 years. Additional data from the SeaWinds instrument on QuikScat show that the normally easterly trade winds ceased or reversed direction in early June, but returned to normal in late June. The continent of Africa continued to suffer drought conditions started during the long La Niña of 1998-2001.

Outcome

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In September, NOAA confirmed that the developing El Niño would influence winter weather across the United States. This prediction was updated in the December news conference (cited in "NOAA Says El Niño to Influence U.S. Weather").

Terra/MODIS SSTA image shows that the warmest waters, reflected in yellows and reds, are concentrated in the middle of the equatorial Pacific Ocean throughout the fall of 2002.

The launch and activation of the instruments on the Aqua (EOS PM-1) spacecraft provides new capabilities for observing and tracking the oceanic and atmospheric effect of ENSO.

Local Links

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Information About ENSO Events

Information About ENSO Effects and Impacts

Disclaimer: NASA offers these suggested sites for additional information regarding recent predictions of an El Niño event for the latter half of 2002. Web access is required to reach these sites. Link existence and contents are not under the control of the EOSDIS Science Operations Office.

El Niño 2002-03 Prediction Web Sites

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnstic Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
Current El Niño and La Niña related Climate Predictions and Forecasts : http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-toa/el-nino/forecasts.html
El Niño Watch from Space: http://airsea-www.jpl.nasa.gov/ENSO/
El Niño Awakens: http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pacific-02e.html
Model Forecasts of the Tropical Pacific (Link to NSIPP Research Animation): http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=8263
Forecast ENSO Conditions from February 2002: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
Climate Factors Helping to Shape Winter 2001-2002: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s794b.htm
The Beginnings of Typhoon Hagibis: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=9285
New Method Links Rainfall Patterns to Developing El Niños: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2002/200205289369.html
New El Niño could give Southwest dry summer [April 11, 2002]: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/nino/2002-04-11-nino.htm
Conditions Fuel El Niño Development [June 6, 2002]: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s922.htm
Still Waiting for El Niño [July 1, 2002]: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=9323
El Niño Threatens, but Fizzles (for Now) [July, 2002]: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=9760
Drought Threatens Africa [Oct. 30, 2002]: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=10805
NOAA Says El Niño to Influence U. S. Weather: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s1074.htm
Pacific Ocean Shows Higher Than Normal Sea Surface Heights [Dec. 2, 2002]: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=10850
The Return of El Niño [Dec. 13, 2002]: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=10849
El Niño, the Usual Suspect? : http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=10913
NASA Data Indicates El Niño will Intensify and Move East: (visualizations produced by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio): http://SVS.gsfc.nasa.gov/stories/elnino_20021212/index.html

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